COP 27 – Avoiding the Apocalypse

There is currently no pathway in place to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C, but it is still possible, maintained Alan Simpson at the opening of the first lecture of six on the global climate crisis, a series of TED Talks at Nottingham University. Nevertheless, if we do want to hit this target, everything has to change, including our way of thinking. The Radical is the only Reasonable! In this blog post, I provide a brief summary of the key points of this first lecture.

 

It is not the poor, who must pay for adjustments to the climate crisis. After all, the poorest 50 per cent are only responsible for around 10 per cent of total lifestyle consumption emissions. If at all, the poor still need to grow in order to secure a decent life. The picture is equally stark at the global level. While the industrialised countries of the Global North have historically contributed 92 per cent of green house gas emissions, it is now countries in the Global South, which face the most drastic consequences. ‘According to data from the Climate Vulnerability Monitor, the South bears 82% of the total costs of climate breakdown, which in 2010 added up to $571 billion in losses due to drought, floods, landslides, storms and wildfires’ (Hickel 2020: 114).

 

Aviation and car mobility are two of the main drivers underpinning greenhouse gas emissions and, thus, climate change. As for aviation, the industry as a whole is organized in an unsustainable way. Since 2019, Alan Simpson outlined, there have been thousands of so-called ‘ghost flights’, that is flights which travel empty between their destinations. 35000 flights were less than 10 per cent full. Currently, there are about 500 ghost flights operated by UK airports a month. It is difficult to imagine a more damaging way of organizing the aviation industry.

 

When it comes to the number of flights per person per year, there too usage is rather uneven between the rich and the poor. Market-based solutions focusing on sustainability via higher prices are not a way forward, as the rich will always be able to pay for further flights whatever the price. Hence, instead of higher prices, we could envisage a scenario in which from the third flight onwards, people have to put back into nature via, for example, a week of repair work in the countryside.

Car travel too has to be re-thought drastically. Carbon emissions per car user should be rationed beyond which the car can no longer be used. Public car parking spaces could be drastically reduced as in Paris, where some of the saved space has been transformed into land for food production. In general, it is public transport networks, which have to be expanded, while the usage of cars should generally be disincentivized.

 

The Energy Charter Treaty (ECT) is one of the most disastrous international agreements when it comes to climate change. It allows fossil fuel corporations to sue countries for damages, if a change in public policy towards green energy and away from fossil fuels is damaging their investments and expected future profits. ‘For example German coal giant RWE is suing the Netherlands for €1.4 billion in “compensation” for the Dutch coal phase-out’ (Transnational Institute 2021). The only way forward is for all EU member states to follow Italy’s example, which left the ECT in 2016. Several countries including France and Germany have already taken this step (Climate Home News, 25 October 2022).

Importantly, whatever radical solutions are to be pursued, they need to follow the ‘Great Law of Peace’ of the Iroquois Confederacy. Their Council could only adopt policies, the implications of which had been thought through for the next seven generations. In other words, any policies confronting climate change must be long-term solutions, not short-term, quick fixes.

 

During the discussion, the potential role of citizens assemblies in confronting climate change was discussed. While political accountability through elections is important, these assemblies could provide the impetus for radical action and a well of ideas, so urgently needed. Combined with re-empowered local government, in which more and more decisions are being taken locally, these assemblies could provide the engine motivating broader sections of the public to engage with the climate crisis.

 

Importantly, Alan Simpson concluded, we need to offer alternatives. It is no longer enough, he argued, to assess the problems underpinning the climate crisis. We need concrete alternative ways forward. The next five lectures in this Ted Talks series will focus precisely on a range of such alternatives.

Andreas Bieler

Professor of Political Economy

University of Nottingham/UK

Andreas.Bieler@nottingham.ac.uk

17 November 2022