Brexit
The
fact that the elections took place against the background of Brexit proved to
be a disaster for the Labour Party. Since the referendum in 2016, the party and
its voters have been deeply split over how to deal with this. Some observers
say now that Labour should have respected the outcome of the referendum and endorsed
Brexit and, therefore, would not have lost so dramatically. However, this
completely overlooks that a pro-Brexit position would have turned away many
party activists as well as voters, who already complained that there had been
no remain position. Fewer losses in the North of the country would have been confronted
with more losses elsewhere. Equally, of course, as the election outcome shows,
a clear remain position would not have saved the party either. Labour has been
genuinely split over Brexit. Boris Johnson turned the Conservatives into a pro-Brexit party and expelled those, who did not like it. The Liberal Democrats became first and foremost a Remain party. Neither course was ever a realistic option for Labour.
The
local Stapleford South by-election in early June was a sign of things to come.
Labour had two excellent local candidates, who had worked for over two years
forming relationships with local residents. They were supported by a large
group of activists participating regularly in door-to-door canvassing sessions.
However, taking place shortly after the elections to the European Parliament
Labour had no chance. Both candidates came a distant third after the Liberal
Democrats, the preferred choice of Remainers, and Conservatives, the preferred
choice of Brexiteers.
The
party’s decision to back a second referendum to bridge this divide ultimately
failed. Some argue now that it might have been strategic to support Theresa
May’s Brexit deal and then fight the subsequent elections on social and
economic issues. With hindsight, this can easily be said. However, at the time
the party’s internal divisions over Brexit ruled out this particular course of
action.
Jeremy Corbyn’s
unpopularity
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| Photo by The Pinefox |
To
argue that the rise of anti-Semitism in the UK is a problem is important, to
lay the blame for this at the door of the Labour Party and here especially
Jeremy Corbyn is political electioneering. Eventually, the character assassination
of Corbyn came through in voters’ perceptions of him. While canvassing in
Stapleford, Broxtowe, in November, a builder shouted across the road that ‘Jeremy
Corbyn was the biggest anti-Semite since Adolf Hitler’.
Of things to come
The
new Conservative MPs for Broxtowe and the neighbouring constituency of Ashfield
show the calibre of the new Tory personnel and are a sign of things to come.
Lee Anderson, the new Conservative MP for Ashfield, produced an infamous video
during the campaign, stating that 'nuisance
tenants' should be made to live in tents and pick potatoes.
Darren Henry, the new Conservative MP for
Broxtowe, when challenged about the increase of people having to rely on
foodbanks, recommended that they should be given lessons in budgeting.
There will be nothing to hope for from the new
Tory government for people, who voted Conservative for the first time in the
Midlands and the North of England. In Blyth Valley, the first traditional
Labour seat, which went to the Conservatives on the night, 24.18 per cent of
children live in poverty. 26.7 per cent of households are classed as fuel poor
and the unemployment rate is 31 per cent. It is precisely these regions, which
would have benefitted from a Labour government and the abolition of zero hours
contracts, the introduction of a £10 per hour minimum wage, proper funding of
education and the establishment of a regional development bank to revive UK
manufacturing.
To say now, as some on the right of the Labour
Party argue, that we should return to the ‘centre’ and New Labour type policies
completely overlooks that the party’s disconnection with these traditional
working class communities started already decades ago precisely under the New
Labour governments of Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson (see Aditya Chakrabortty, 14 December 2019). The biggest failure of Labour now was that it did not
manage to connect its programme of hope with the aspirations of these
traditional working class communities. The Corbyn project was extremely popular
with younger people in cities, but hardly reached into the neglected
communities in the Midlands and the North of the country. Many new activists
joined the Labour Party under Corbyn and participated actively in campaigns,
but few of this new intake came from the traditional working class.
Overlooked, disregarded and without hope after
decades of neglect, these communities had first voted for Brexit in a protest
about their situation and now felt betrayed by the long process of actually
implementing it. The Conservative message of ‘Let’s get Brexit done’ proved to
be too seductive in this situation. The economic fallout of Boris Johnson’s
Brexit deal combined with Conservative party austerity policies will ensure
that these communities will have to pay a heavy price for their decision.
Of course, there are also winners due to the
decisive Tory victory. Shortly after the announcement of the exit poll, the
financial markets rallied and the Pound gained vis-à-vis the Dollar and the
Euro. The Conservative victory ensures that Labour’s plans for the
nationalisation of key industries such as water, the railways and postal
services are off the table for now. Capital can continue to rake in super
profits at the expense of working people and their hefty bills for these
services. The Conservative victory guarantees that employers such as Sports
Direct and Amazon can continue to exploit workers on zero hours contracts and
poverty pay. These are the real winners of the elections.
What next?
First, we must not succumb
to the vilification of Corbyn, be it by the right-wing media, be it by the
right within the party itself. Corbyn has revived the Labour Party at all
levels and instilled an enormous dynamic. There is no other politician in the UK currently, who can draw such large crowds. Second,
a step back from the Corbyn project of social justice has to be avoided at all
cost. There can be no return to New Labour style policies, which have done so
much to facilitate Tory restructuring in the first place. Third, there can be no return to centralised decision-making by the
party bureaucracy in London with local members having no opportunity to
contribute to policy discussions. The regular consultations of members
introduced by Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell have to be maintained.
Fourth, Labour Party members
have to bury their divisions over Brexit. This struggle is over and should no
longer influence discussions about who should be the next leader and where the
party should go. Fifth, the party
has to make renewed efforts at gaining the trust of the abandoned working class
communities. ‘Providing advice to those whose benefits are being slashed, legal
support to tenants under the cosh from their landlords, haggling with the utilities
to provide cheaper and better deals. Add to that: teaching political and
economic literacy to voters, not just activists, and consulting constituents on
what issues Labour should be battling on’ (see Aditya
Chakrabortty, 14 December 2019).
Manifesto policies such as nationalising water
are popular with people up and down the country. Reconnecting with people in
deprived areas, making the case for these policies in a sustained way and not
only around the time of elections are the tasks for the future. The Labour
Party has many excellent young, female politicians such as Rebecca Long-Bailey
or Angela Rayner, who can continue the project. As there is no final victory,
there is no final defeat!
Andreas Bieler
Professor of Political Economy
University of Nottingham/UK
University of Nottingham/UK
Posts
I agree with pretty much all of the analysis here, though I would add a couple of points. First of all, its important not to accept the narrative of the Labour Right (and much of the Soft Left) about this election being an unprecedented disaster that proves the failure of the Left. This narrative was already written in 2015, based on an unshakable conviction that the Left had always been and always would be unelectable, there was widespread panic that Corbyn would mark the existential death of the party. The obvious thing to say is that, on the contrary, Corbyn`s left platform did prove enormously electorally successful in 2017 receiving a popular vote of 12,878,460 (40%), the only time that the party has broken through 40% in the past half century aside from the two Blair landslides of 1997 and 2001. This was also the largest increase in vote share in electoral history (if we exclude the 1945 election which had a much longer cycle due to WWII). However, even if we look at the 2019 election, which undeniably was a disaster in terms of seats won, Corbyn`s Labour had a popular vote of 10,269,076 (32%) which was in fact up on the performance of the two previous leaders of the party, Ed Miliband with 9,347,273 (30%) in 2015 and Gordon Brown, who only managed 8,609,527 (29%) in 2010. Already you are hearing comparisons with 1983, but in that election Michael Foot fell to 8,456,934 (27%). What is clear from these two elections is that a left wing labour party can attract a considerable popular vote, at least comparable to, if not larger than that offered by either the New Labour Right or the Soft Left. Why Labour lost so many seats in this election, particularly in its traditional heartlands, is a crucial conversation to have, but it cannot be legitimately framed as irrefutable evidence in proof of the unelectability of the Left.
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